Metaculus aggregates forecasts on a large number of questions. Because participants don’t make any money for making accurate predictions and instead only gain in reputations, it’s different from prediction markets. Metaculus aggregates forecasts as probability densities, which is the correct way.
Here are some of the many interesting probability densities:
Related: My expectations for 205 and my post on forecasting.
Nehaveigur 
3 responses to “Metaculus”
[…] Related: My posts on forecasting and on Metaculus. […]
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[…] there’s no realistic prospect of landing before 2050. This is past the median prediction on Metaculus […]
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[…] underestimated, especially by those who are the most gung-ho. The median aggregate of forecasts on Metaculus estimates that the first humans will arrive in 2043, although the plausible interval around that is […]
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