Scott Sumner has a good post on tariffs. Fringe views, like tariffs being beneficial, sometimes turn out to be correct, but most of the time they’re wrong. I’d extend this view to the Trump presidency as a whole: there’s a chance that he’ll do something positive, but it’s unlikely and the probability as well as the likely magnitude of a downside is larger.
I’m in favor of companies and individuals trying approaches that most people think will not work. Innovation requires risk-taking. It’s a different story for government, at least if the price of failure is high. In other words, for the things that matter, I don’t want our politicians to be gamblers.
Nehaveigur 