Are we close to developing large language models (LMMs) that have artificial general intelligence (AGI) soon? Some think we’re already there, but according to this paper, assuming that LMMs are on the cusp of AGI is based on a misunderstanding. Cosma Shalizi, one of the co-authors, has more on his blog:
[LMMs] are not so much minds as a new form of information retrieval […] I was (I suspect) among the last cohorts of students who were routinely taught how to use paper library card catalogs. Those, too, were technologies for bringing inquirers into contact with the works of other minds. You can worry, if you like, that LLMs are their kin are going to grow into uncontrollable artificial general intelligences, but it makes about as much sense as if I’d had nightmares about card catalogs going feral.
And this:
A huge amount of cultural and especially intellectual tradition consists of formulas, templates, conventions, and indeed tropes and stereotypes. To some extent this is to reduce the cognitive burden on creators: this has been extensively studied, for instance, for oral culture, such as oral epics. But formulas also reduce the cognitive burden on people receiving communications. Scientific papers, for instance, within any one field have an incredibly stereotyped organization, as well as using very formulaic language. One could imagine a world where every paper was supposed to be a daring exploration of form as well as content, but in reality readers want to be able to check what the reagents were, or figure out which optimization algorithm was used, and the formulaic structure makes that much easier. This is boiler-plate and ritual, yes, but it’s not just boiler-plate and ritual, or at least not pointless ritual […] Large models have learned nearly all of the formulas, templates, tropes and stereotypes. (They’re probability models of text sequences, after all.) To use Barzun’s distinction, they will not put creative intelligence on tap, but rather stored and accumulated intellect. If they succeed in making people smarter, it will be by giving them access to the external forms of a myriad traditions.
Nehaveigur 