If betting or forecasting markets give even chances for two outcomes, it could either be that they are equally likely to happen, or that nobody has the faintest idea. In the latter case, the 50-50 chances are a reflection of the forecasters throwing up their hands saying, it could be either.
This forecast on Metaculus gives a 49% chance that AI will result in broadly positive outcome (Futurama, Singularity) by 2050, a 42% chance that it will have a negative outcome (AI Dystopia, Paperclipalypse), and a 9% chance that it won’t matter much either way (AI-Fizzle). To a first approximation, that’s an even chance of hell and paradise. Chillingly, this means that the possibility of death by AI for all of us is impossible to dismiss.
My personal prediction: In 2050, we’re going to argue if we live in the AI Dystopia or Futurama scenario.
Nehaveigur 