Alex Trembath has published an article about climate science and its lack of epistemic humility in Asterisk Magazine. In essence, he states that
- There is uncertainty what the degree or the impact of climate change will be
- Climate activists, and many climate scientists, have overstated the degree of uncertainty for political reasons
- This overconfidence has achieved short-term objectives in terms of implementing actions to limit the impact of climate change, but also has damaged trust and contributed to recent backsliding on climate goals
- Going forward, climate science should communicate honestly, which includes being honest about doubt and uncertainty
I agree with many of Trembath’s points. Epistemic humility is both a scientific and a democratic virtue. However, in the spirit of honest communication, I wish he acknowledged that many authorities, including the International Panel on Climate Change, do go to great pains to state the uncertainty surrounding their models accurately. Their most recent report is a good example.
Nehaveigur 