Nehaveigur

Category: Forecasting

  • Even Chances: AI could be good or bad, and we have no idea which is more likely

    If betting or forecasting markets give even chances for two outcomes, it could either be that they are equally likely to happen, or that nobody has the faintest idea. In the latter case, the 50-50 chances are a reflection of the forecasters throwing up their hands saying, it could be…

  • Forecasting

    Yesterday, the S&P 500 closed at 5,469 points. Do you think it’s going to be higher or lower by the end of the year? You have an opinion, but really, you don’t know. But maybe I’m wrong. Maybe you’re a hundred percent certain you know which way the stock market…