Category: Methods
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Even Chances: AI could be good or bad, and we have no idea which is more likely
If betting or forecasting markets give even chances for two outcomes, it could either be that they are equally likely to happen, or that nobody…
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Causation Does Not Imply Variation
As everyone knows in the abstract but sometimes forgets in the heat of the moment, correlation does not imply causation. John Cochrane reminds us that…
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Things Don’t Happen for a Reason
We want to know why. My career is built around finding the causes for rare diseases. Human genetics, the field I trained and work in,…
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The Algernon Argument
If there were an intervention that would result in enhanced intelligence, why have we not already evolved that way? The answer is the Algernon argument.…
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The Jerk Funnel
James Steinberg has come up with an interesting concept: There are behaviors and processes that unintentionally result in being surrounded by assholes. Unfortunately, he has…
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Two-By-Two Matrices
Each of the fields I have worked in – computer science, genetics, management consulting, biotechnology – has its own 2×2 matrices. Computer science and medicine…
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Of p Values and Effect Sizes
Scientists are obsessed with p values, and since I work in a particularly quantitative field, I’m more obsessed than most. When you run a statistical…
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Intuition Pumps
Like all artisans, a blacksmith needs tools, but – according to an old (indeed almost extinct) observation – blacksmiths are unique in that they make…
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The Things We Worry About
I’ve always admired the ability to overcome one’s fears and to encounter danger not just calmly, but with levity. It took me years to realize…
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Collider Bias
This is also known as Berkson’s paradox. It arises when there is ascertainment bias in the study design. Here’s an example from Carl T. Bergstrom…
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Autogenic Training
Autogenic training is a relaxation technique similar to mindfulness meditation. I’ve tried both, and I prefer autogenic training. How does it work? You lie down…
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Strong and Weak Link Problems
I’ve been a collector and connoisseur of fine concepts for some time now and it doesn’t happen often that I come across one that is…
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Travel Hesitancy
Whenever I have to catch an early flight and get up at 4 am, I wonder, why I’m doing this to myself? Why don’t I…
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The Definition of Coherence
I have previously written about coherence without defining it. In a recent conversation between Jim Rutt and guest Kristian Rönn they talk about Rönn’s book…
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The Art of Interesting
As a guest on the Jim Rutt Show, philosopher Lorraine Besser recently talked about her book The Art of Interesting. One concept she mentioned has…
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Minimizing Engagement
In recent years, I’ve tried to limit my news consumption. I’d rather spend my time and attention on things where I can make a difference.…
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When to Stop Looking
Imagine you want to hire someone. In a meeting room, there are eight candidates waiting to be interviewed. You can only interview one of them…
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Fermi Calculations
Many years ago and on a different continent, I used to work for a management consulting firm with offices in all of the world’s major…
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The Copernican Principle
The Copernican Principle was formulated by physicist J. Richard Gott, who when he visited the Berlin wall in 1969 asked how much longer it was…
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The Precautionary Principle
Or: Should you really never change a working system? Given an innovation whose future positive and negative impact are uncertain, which position should be taken…
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Monday Notes
For the team I manage, I’ve instituted a 60-year-old management technique. Monday notes are a system for keeping track of what everyone is working on,…
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Forecasting
Yesterday, the S&P 500 closed at 5,469 points. Do you think it’s going to be higher or lower by the end of the year? You…
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Insufficient Information
Decisions are always made with insufficient information. If you really knew what was going on, the decision would make itself. Jack McDevitt: Odyssey
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Goodhart’s Law
When a metric becomes a goal, it ceases to be a good metric. In other words, if a system can be gamed, it will be.…
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Builds Character
If a person who has not had enough exercise attempts to backpack, then he will find the going difficult. He might think, “I sweat, I…
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Reversion to the Mean
Things tend to even out over time. If something is extraordinarily high or low on first measurement, it will often be closer to the mean…
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The Encyclopedia of Concepts
Expertise isn’t easily transferable. Chess grandmasters excel at chess, not International Relations, and surgeons are good at surgery, not juggling. True expertise can only arise…
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