Category: Concepts
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Causation Does Not Imply Variation
As everyone knows in the abstract but sometimes forgets in the heat of the moment, correlation does not imply causation. John Cochrane reminds us that…
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Things Don’t Happen for a Reason
We want to know why. My career is built around finding the causes for rare diseases. Human genetics, the field I trained and work in,…
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The Algernon Argument
If there were an intervention that would result in enhanced intelligence, why have we not already evolved that way? The answer is the Algernon argument.…
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The Jerk Funnel
James Steinberg has come up with an interesting concept: There are behaviors and processes that unintentionally result in being surrounded by assholes. Unfortunately, he has…
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Two-By-Two Matrices
Each of the fields I have worked in – computer science, genetics, management consulting, biotechnology – has its own 2×2 matrices. Computer science and medicine…
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Of p Values and Effect Sizes
Scientists are obsessed with p values, and since I work in a particularly quantitative field, I’m more obsessed than most. When you run a statistical…
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Intuition Pumps
Like all artisans, a blacksmith needs tools, but – according to an old (indeed almost extinct) observation – blacksmiths are unique in that they make…
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Collider Bias
This is also known as Berkson’s paradox. It arises when there is ascertainment bias in the study design. Here’s an example from Carl T. Bergstrom…
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Strong and Weak Link Problems
I’ve been a collector and connoisseur of fine concepts for some time now and it doesn’t happen often that I come across one that is…
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The Definition of Coherence
I have previously written about coherence without defining it. In a recent conversation between Jim Rutt and guest Kristian Rönn they talk about Rönn’s book…
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The Art of Interesting
As a guest on the Jim Rutt Show, philosopher Lorraine Besser recently talked about her book The Art of Interesting. One concept she mentioned has…
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When to Stop Looking
Imagine you want to hire someone. In a meeting room, there are eight candidates waiting to be interviewed. You can only interview one of them…
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Fermi Calculations
Many years ago and on a different continent, I used to work for a management consulting firm with offices in all of the world’s major…
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The Copernican Principle
The Copernican Principle was formulated by physicist J. Richard Gott, who when he visited the Berlin wall in 1969 asked how much longer it was…
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The Precautionary Principle: When does it apply?
Or: Should you really never change a working system? Given an innovation whose future positive and negative impact are uncertain, which position should be taken…
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Goodhart’s Law
When a metric becomes a goal, it ceases to be a good metric. In other words, if a system can be gamed, it will be.…
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Reversion to the Mean
Things tend to even out over time. If something is extraordinarily high or low on first measurement, it will often be closer to the mean…
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The Encyclopedia of Concepts
Expertise isn’t easily transferable. Chess grandmasters excel at chess, not International Relations, and surgeons are good at surgery, not juggling. True expertise can only arise…
Nehaveigur 