Forecasting
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AI and Therapeutic Abundance: Clinical trials are unlikely to get much cheaper
AI can help to design drug candidates, but as Ruxanda Teslo argues on Asimov Press, it’s not going to lead to therapeutic abundance anytime soon.…
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Even Chances: AI could be good or bad, and we have no idea which is more likely
If betting or forecasting markets give even chances for two outcomes, it could either be that they are equally likely to happen, or that nobody…
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1933 and 2025: Weimar Germany doesn’t help us understand the current situation
To the degree it is possible for any one born in the 1980s, I have a sense for what occurred in Germany in the run-up…
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The US Democracy Threat Index: Monitoring if the country is doing well
Metaculus has introduced a US Democracy Threat Index. Here is their description: [It] combines 39 concrete forecast questions into a single metric tracking institutional resilience.…
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America, Dark and Bright: More upside and more downside than elsewhere
Looking at the United States from the outside, it can seem that the country is all about its politics and its media. And it’s true,…
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Metaculus: A forecast aggregator
Metaculus aggregates forecasts on a large number of questions. Because participants don’t make any money for making accurate predictions and instead only gain in reputations,…
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