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Forecasting
Analysis and Execution: Being right and being successful are not the same thing
2026-03-19
AI and Therapeutic Abundance: Clinical trials are unlikely to get much cheaper
2026-03-04
Even Chances: AI could be good or bad, and we have no idea which is more likely
2026-01-21
1933 and 2025: Weimar Germany doesn’t help us understand the current situation
2025-10-18
The US Democracy Threat Index: Monitoring if the country is doing well
2025-09-17
America, Dark and Bright: More upside and more downside than elsewhere
2025-06-07
Metaculus: A forecast aggregator
2024-12-05
Forecasting: The accuracy of forecasts is measurable, can be improved, and has hard upper limits
2024-06-26
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