Category: Society
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Even Chances
This forecast on Metaculus gives a 49% chance that AI will result in broadly positive outcome (Futurama, Singularity) by 2050, a 42% chance that it will have a negative outcome (AI Dystopia, Paperclipalypse), and a 9% chance that it won’t matter much either way (AI-Fizzle). To a first approximation, that’s…
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Peripherical Drinking
David Samuels, has published an article about America, inspired by a recent visit to American Samoa. There, at the country’s extreme periphery, he sits in a tiki bar, drinks piña coladas and has thoughts such as this: A new type of consciousness has emerged, in which we neither believe nor…
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Attention and Emotion
Liel Leibovitz, in County Highway, draws a line between our decreasing attention spans and our lack of emotion: What we have here, then, is a failure to stop communicating, an inflammation of interruption that, unless checked, will consume our brains and eat away at our ability to think, reason, or…
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The Enemy is Numbness
There is a pervasive feeling that modernity is bland: Buildings, clothes, cars and interior design are minimalist and identical everywhere. Emotional blandness or numbness gets less attention. People, on average, seem less emotional than they used to be. I cannot prove this, since there is no way to quantify societal…
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The EU-Mercosur Agreement
This week, the European Union decided to go ahead with an agreement with Mercosur, the South American common market. It’s a victory for free trade. I owe much to the European Union and the liberties it has brought have made a big positive impact on my life. The basic laws…
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Another Utopia
It’s easy to think of the ways in which things may go badly, but a less familiar exercise is to imagine ways in which they may go well. For the United States in particular, the range of outcomes that’s possible to imagine is wider than for other nations, both on…
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Many and Few
Leo Tolstoy wrote that all happy families are alike but each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way. Jim Harrison wrote that our wounds are far less unique than our cures. Here is David Foster Wallace: TV is not vulgar and prurient and dumb because the people who compose…
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Aspirations for 2026
I wish to you the good luck to be somewhere where you are free to maintain the kind of integrity I have described, and where you do not feel forced by a need to maintain your position in the organization, or financial support, or so on, to lose your integrity.…
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Motivation
It seems obvious that to build effective organizations, incentives have to be aligned with the desired outcomes. For example, we should give big bonuses to those with the best performance. As Daniel Pink observes in Drive, it’s more complicated than that: Enjoyment-based intrinsic motivation, namely how creative a person feels…
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Pretty, Please
The gay community has resisted cultural blandness more and better than any other. Ryan Khurana on Palladium: By the early 20th century, dedication to aesthetic values had become the province of artists and bohemians, people explicitly outside respectable society. The bourgeois rationalization of existence left no room for beauty as…
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Aristocracy and Ability
We’re not smart. We don’t work hard. We’re just posh. President of a Viennese private bank catering to the aristocracy I dislike of the concept of aristocracy, but is it possible that having an aristocracy is beneficial to a society? If we assume that it’s a good idea to put…
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Overfitting Towards Blandness
Our culture has become bland, as evidenced by fashion, building, cars, book covers, and household objects all looking the same. Even people seem to be less weird than they once were. It’s an observation that has been made by me and others, on this blog and in many other places,…
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Performative Xenophobia
Denmark has more restrictive immigration policies than other Western countries. This is a good article without the hyperventilation that usually comes with the topic.
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Little Tigers
“What you’re doing is as extravagant as keeping a pet tiger,” said my brother. “Having three kids is unheard of here.” My wife, our kids and I were spending a month in Austria, where I’m originally from and where he still lives. He wasn’t entirely serious. Big families, until recently,…
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Economic Policy Won’t Fix It
How much of variance in economic performance is due to a country’s economic policy? This is an important question because our political discourse assumes that economic policies matter a great deal. It’s the economy, stupid. Politicians propose their policies, voters compare them to their rivals’ policies and vote accordingly, and…
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Feedback
This time of the year, managers are expected to provide feedback to their reports. There are forms to fill in, “coaching conversations” to schedule, and reports on employees’ fit to the company’s “core culture” and “principles” to be written. A lot of the conventional corporate wisdom surrounding feedback is wrong.…
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Politics Won’t Fix It
For a long time now, Americans have felt that the country is moving in the wrong direction without anyone clearly articulating what the right direction might be. As a result, they vote for whoever seems most likely to change the status quo. A country’s society and its politics aren’t the…
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Lack of Desperation
I recently discovered Sam Kriss’ Substack, Numb at the Lodge. I wish I could write like that. At the same time, I don’t envy Kriss. He’s desperate. Whatever he describes, it’s terrible. Here he is about the impact of smartphones: We thought we were just having fun times with devices;…
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Child of Freedom, Parent of Prosperity
How much should the government spend on science? One view is that it should spend a lot, since every dollar pays back many times over. The other view is that governmental research spending is wasteful and that many of its benefits could be better realized by industry-funded research. I know…
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Viscerality
First: The modern world is in fact very pleasant. We have a thousand labor-saving devices. We are thoroughly accustomed to instant heat, cold, transportation, water, light. The elements are at our command in dials and switches. How ridiculous that must sound to most of history! How hard to believe. It…
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One Argument is Better than Two
People have to eat, and some of what they eat is meat. As with everything, there’s a tradeoff, in this case between animal welfare and meat prices. Liv Boeree in Palladium magazine makes a convincing case that current law prioritizes low meat prices too much and animal welfare too little.…
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A Tame Society
Drinking, drugs, crime and cult membership are all down compared to a generation ago. Adam Mastroianni on Experimental History argues that this decline in deviance may be a marker of a general decline in cultural weirdness and innovation. Are we getting tamer and less interesting? As Mastroianni himself observes, not…
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The Evolution of Everything
The Evolution of Everything isn’t Matt Ridley’s best book, but it has sections that are among the most thought-provoking writing I’ve come across. The theme is the insight that a lot of good things aren’t created but evolve. For example, is education important for economic growth? According to Ridley, not…
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The Rational Optimist
Reading and thinking about Birds, Sex & Beauty by Matt Ridely reminded me of his other books I’ve read over the years. He’s a wonderful writer and keen observer, especially in his books. His political writing, for example in the Times, is angrier and not always well argued. The first…
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Democracy, the Fortunate
It’s fortunate that liberal democracy, the only acceptable sort of governance (because it’s the only one that respects the dignity and rights of the individual) is also the one that is most conductive to greatness. Not necessarily greatness of the nation, but of the individual and of business and other…
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Shamanism
There are those who travel spirit worlds. They may know that those worlds only exist in their minds, or they may believe that those worlds are real. They use drugs to enter altered states, sometimes in combination with music. They burn herbs, they paint their bodies, they put on masks,…
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Ordinary Beauty
You may not think [Victorian design] is beautiful, but I don’t think it was supposed to be beautiful. It was just supposed to be pretty. At least interesting. At least not boring. And that in itself says an awful lot … We have become a society of convenience above all…
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McDonald’s Innocence
McDonald’s, according to journalist Chris Arnade, often is the only place for the very poor to meet and relax. It’s open to all in a way that most other places, including community centers and homeless shelters, aren’t. Arnade’s blog is here and here‘s some more on his book Dignity. My…
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Relax About the Population Collapse
There’s widespread agreement that a declining population is equivalent to declining fortunes, be it for cities, for countries or for the whole world. That fertility rates are too low to maintain current population levels is indisputable. Europe, East Asia and the Americas (North and South) are all affected. If the…
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Helmets
The idea behind the helmet law is to preserve a brain whose judgement is so poor it does not even try to stop the cracking of the head it’s in Jerry Seinfeld My father had a story of him cycling around Sheffield in England in the 1960s. Encountering a hill…
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Cruelty
There’s some cruelty inherent in fishing and hunting. I’m not opposed to either and fish myself, but I think it’d be dishonest not acknowledge that they cause suffering. That we should avoid causing unnecessary suffering isn’t a controversial proposition. What’s less clear is what kind of damage we do to…
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The US Democracy Threat Index
Metaculus has introduced a US Democracy Threat Index. Here is their description: [It] combines 39 concrete forecast questions into a single metric tracking institutional resilience. These indicators were selected by our returning partners at Bright Line Watch, a nonpartisan group of political scientists from Dartmouth and other leading institutions who…
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Shakespeare
There are things we like the idea of, but if we’re honest, we don’t want to do them. Contributing to a tight-knit community, going to church, farming and going to the theatre come to mind. This summer, I spent a few days in Manhattan. By chance, I came across a…
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Questions about Philanthropy
Americans, on the whole, are generous when it comes to charitable giving, especially compared with Europeans. Part of the reason may be that there’s less of a safety net and more reliance on donations, part may be that Europeans are stingier. Here are some questions about philanthropy: More questions about: Cave…
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Effective Mess
Chaos always defeats order because it is better organized Terry Pratchett A few weeks ago, I shared a pointer to a podcast about the internal messiness of AIs. They don’t represent the world neatly, but in a way that has been described as Fractured Entanglement. Interestingly, organizations suffer from the…
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Personnel as Policy
Despite all the research done on management best practices, all the articles and reports and books that have been written, despite all the experience accumulated by consulting firms and other organizations, it’s not clear if the quality of corporate management is higher now than it was fifty years ago. For…
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Money
All for individuals and annual. U.S. GDP per capita: $82,769 Median income (individuals in full-time employment): $62,088 Top 10% income threshold: $150,000 Top 1% income threshold: $430,000 U.S. poverty threshold: $16,650 11% of U.S. population below Cost of USDA recommended diet: $2,970 Global median income: $19,306 Global poverty threshold: $1,095…
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A Beautiful Epoch
Movies and musicals are often set during the Belle Epoque, probably because the dresses and houses are so pretty. Even science fiction is sometimes set in a Belle Epoque-like world (Cyberpunk). Returning to Europe this summer and seeing late 19th century buildings everywhere reminded me of how easy on the…
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Building Communities
We’re far from having imagined all the different ways in which society may evolve. One recurring complaint about America is its atomization. Have we taken individualism too far? There seems to be a pervasive yearning for a return to stronger communities. Scott Alexander on Astral Codex Ten asks why so…
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I Like the European Union
There’s much I owe to the European Union. Without it, my life up to now would’ve been very different and I’d likely have less to be grateful for. Because of the EU, I was able to move from Austria to England, Sweden and Germany to live, study and work, without…
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Drafts
According to a pervasive belief in the German-speaking world, it’s essential to avoid drafts. They cause all kinds of diseases, including muscle stiffness and colds. This is why houses and especially sleeping areas must be kept draft free. I have not encountered this belief elsewhere and there is next to…
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Mandated Style
The city of Santa Fe mandates that downtown buildings adhere to a specific style, Pueblo Revival. I’m in favor of making it easier to build and removing arbitrary restrictions. Yet even though I’m a YIMBY, I wonder if style mandates wouldn’t improve cities’ attractiveness. The mandated styles could be historical…
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Austria 2000-2025
This summer I spent the most time in Austria since I left more than two decades ago. I’ve written about my impressions before. In this post, I’m going over what has improved and what has gotten worse. What has gotten better: What has gotten worse: What has stayed the same:
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Network Television
[Larry] Gross and several of his colleagues once did a fascinating bit of research to demonstrate what television of that era was capable of. He analyzed the responses of a large group of people who were asked how they felt about the biggest hot-button racial issues of the 1970s, such…
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A Bold Choice
Pandemic 2020 is the name of a cafe I encountered recently while walking around Vienna. I wasn’t brave enough to enter, which I now regret, because I’d like to know what kind of person chooses such a name for their business. Two more photos from the same trip:
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America, Dark and Bright
Looking at the United States from the outside, it can seem that the country is all about its politics and its media. And it’s true, those two siblings, conjoined at the hips, command much of the world’s attention. The world spends millions of hours watching content produced by American studios…
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Questions about Tourism
A recent work trip to Barcelona afforded me some time to explore the city. I grew up in Vienna, which, like Barcelona, is a major tourist destination. The old towns of both cities feel similarly overrun by tourists and avoided by locals. However, when I was a kid in Vienna,…
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Optimum Bureaucracy
It’s reasonable to propose making statins available over-the-counter (OTC), which is exactly what Alex Kesin recently did. However, this shouldn’t happen with the stroke of a government official’s pen. Instead, it should happen by applying the existing regulatory framework. If current regulations are overly convoluted or slow, they should be…
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Banning Advertising
Driving around San Francisco, the billboards by the highways advertise enterprise software solutions. In Los Angeles, it’s accident injury lawyers. In the Central Valley, cosmetic surgery dominates. Software is obviously a big deal in SF, but don’t know what the billboards say about those other places. Having grown up in…
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Revelation and Delusion
This is from Feet of Clay by Anthony Storr, as quoted in Under the Banner of Heaven by Jon Krakauer: Both revelation and delusion are attempts at the solution of problems. Artists and scientists realize that no solution is ever final, but that each new creative step points the way…
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YouTube Stats
Random sampling of YouTube suggests that by 2024, YouTube hosted 14.8 billion videos. There are 2.5 billion monthly YouTube users and a back-of-the-napkin calculation suggests that humanity collectively wastes 100 million lives watching YouTube content day and night. That’s a lot more time than is wasted on Netflix (21 million…
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No More Holy Age Than Ours
There were no formerly heroic times, and there was no formerly pure generation. There is no one here but us chickens, and so it has always been: A people busy and powerful, knowledgeable, ambivalent, important, fearful, and self-aware; a people who scheme, promote, deceive, and conquer; who pray for their…
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Questions about Appearance
Observing someone, watching them smile or frown or hesitate or eat or walk, we can’t help form an opinion about them. Doing so may be an indispensable part of interacting with others. Even so, I’d love to know how accurate those opinions tend to be.
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Tariffs
Scott Sumner has a good post on tariffs. Fringe views, like tariffs being beneficial, sometimes turn out to be correct, but most of the time they’re wrong. I’d extend this view to the Trump presidency as a whole: there’s a chance that he’ll do something positive, but it’s unlikely and…
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God On Their Side
Suppose that we face some horrific, terrible enemy, another Hitler or something really, really bad, and here’s two different armies that we could use to defend ourselves. I’ll call them the Gold Army and the Silver Army; same numbers, same training, same weaponry. They’re all armored and armed as well…
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Being Yourself
Almost everyone is at least a little bit weird, and most people are very weird. If you’ve got even an ounce of strange inside you, at some point the right decision for you is not going to be the sensible one. You’re going to have to do something inadvisable, something…
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30 by 30
In 2016, Edward O. Wilson proposed that half of Earth‘s surface should be protected similar to a national park. In 2020, California governor Gavin Newsom signed an executive order with the goal of protecting 30% of the state’s surface by 2030 (30 x 30). Given that we’re now halfway between…
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Political Fashions
Why are right wing parties doing well recently? Explanations that are limited to a single country (“It’s a backlash against Biden and Obama“) aren’t satisfying, since the trend persists across most of the Western world. Right-wing parties are also doing well in Europe, including Austria, where I was born and…
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Finite and Infinite Games
In this little book, James P. Carse argues that evil is the termination of possibilities, or as he calls it, of infinite play. Evil is not the attempt to eliminate the play of another according to published and accepted rules, but to eliminate the play of another regardless of the…
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Paperclip Apocalypse or Profit Apocalypse?
Let’s hope AI doesn’t turn the universe into paperclips and remains aligned with its masters. Even so, this could lead to suboptimal outcomes. Imagine AIs running corporations, replacing its employees, either from the bottom up or from the CEO down. If those AIs are well aligned with the company’s missison,…
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Our Biotech Future that Didn’t Happen
I once attended a week-long meeting in Heidelberg. The topic was Science and Society and the organizer was Sheila Jasanoff, an academic whose work focuses on the social and political influences on scientific research. Most of the attendants were academics in the life sciences from the U.S. and Europe, and…
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Commander’s Intent
From Robert Coram’s biography of fighter pilot John Boyd: In a blitzkrieg situation, the commander is able to maintain a high operational tempo and rapidly exploit opportunity because he makes sure his subordinates know his intent, his schwerpunkt. They are not micromanaged, that is, they are not told to seize…
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We Need Heroes
Chris Arnade on his blog Walking The World writes something that seems very true to me and would explain a lot: This has been one of my pet theories that I’ve grown more and more confident of as I’ve walked the world, and read more, which is that cultures, like a…
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The Enemy is Blandness
Life, if you’re not careful, can be bland. Modern buildings, food, clothes, interior design, cars: They’re all very convenient, very safe and very bland. And it’s not just the things we buy, it’s the way we live. Statistically speaking, we have smaller families and fewer friends than we used to.…
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The Definition of Coherence
I have previously written about coherence without defining it. In a recent conversation between Jim Rutt and guest Kristian Rönn they talk about Rönn’s book The Darwinian Trap. A good definition of coherence may be any behavior that avoids Darwinian traps. This would make altruism, which can avoid game theoretic…
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Thresholds
From L. M. Sacasas’ blog, The Convivial Society, in which he asks if and when technology is beneficial to the individual. One way view this is through Ivan Illich’s concept of thresholds. Illich invited us to evaluate technologies and institutions by identifying relevant thresholds, which, when crossed, rendered the technology or…
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The Uniform of Individualism
The has been too little personal involvement, and too much involvement in organizations which were insisting that other organizations should do what was right … Individualism is going around these days in uniform, handing out the party line. Wendell Berry This is from an essay by Wendell Berry in the…
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Benjamin Franklin’s Autobiography
Benjamin Franklin’s autobiography is full of insights about human nature. Of the many quotable passages, this one foreshadows what Richard Feynman wrote 200 years later about epistemic democracy: It had pleased God to enlighten our minds so far as to see that some doctrines, which we once esteemed truths, were…
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Men Don’t Read
“Women readers now account for about 80 percent of fiction sales,” writes David Morris in the New York Times. Why is that? Most new books being written by women may have something to do with it but can’t completely explain it. After all, there are millions of books by male…
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Why So Ugly?
Given that we’re wealthier and technologically more capable than we were 100 years ago, why is our architecture not only the same everywhere but also much uglier? Tom Wolfe tried to answer this in From Bauhaus To Our House. I didn’t know about the book and I’m grateful to Scott…
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We’re Not Free
While we’re theoretically free, there is some empirical evidence that we’re not in practice. I don’t know if the optimistic or the pessimistic view of our ability to determine our future will win in the end.
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Possible Societies
Yesterday’s post was an extensive quote from another blog arguing that we’re free to choose what society looks like in the long term. When we imagine humanity’s path over the next 100 years or so, we’re too often either just extrapolating from what it’s like right now, or we imagine…
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We’re Free
Consider the category of spandrel. A spandrel is something that results from the process of evolution, but itself carries no evolutionary benefit, and may even carry a detriment. Nipples are sometimes an adaptation (when present in women) but sometimes a spandrel (when present in men). Similarly, morality is sometimes adaptive…
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Lottery Instead of Elections
Sortition, which also goes by Demarchy, is a system of governance in which leaders are chosen by lottery instead of elections. Here are some pointers on the topic:
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May You Live in Interesting Times
The phrase “may you live in interesting times” is the lowest in a trilogy of Chinese curses that continue “may you come to the attention of those in authority” and finish with “may the gods give you everything you ask for.” I have no idea about its authenticity. Terry Pratchett…
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The Value of Doubt
The government of the United States was developed under the idea that nobody knew how to make a government, or how to govern. The result is to invent a system to govern when you don’t know how. And the way to arrange it is to permit a system, like we…
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Minimizing Engagement
In recent years, I’ve tried to limit my news consumption. I’d rather spend my time and attention on things where I can make a difference. I couldn’t put it any better than Dynomight does here: One of my strongest beliefs is that way too many people allow politics to play…
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Spend it Wisely
Last week, my wife and I packed our kids into the car and drove four hours to a cabin in the Sierra Nevada foothills. Early November is a good time to spend be there if it doesn’t rain. It didn’t, and on one of our walks we even saw a…
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Not Transferable
As a scientist, a common lament I hear from my colleagues is that there aren’t enough scientists in politics. Although there are some who’ve made it to the top – Margaret Thatcher, Angela Merkel, Claudia Sheinbaum – we’re underrepresented compared to other professions like lawyers or businesspeople. Personally, I don’t…
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The Value of an Education
Of my mother’s many siblings, there’s one I’m close with. When I was at high school, he gave me a summer job at his business, which was installing air conditioners in Vienna. I carried pipes and tools, drilled holes and patched walls. At the end of each day, I was…
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Vengeance and Vindication
Here’s a good paragraph by Philosopher Bear: People imagine that they want vengeance, when really what they want is vindication. In many cases, I think, the reason victims want a long sentence (when they do want a long sentence- it is a mistake to think they always do) is because…
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Free Trade
Those who proclaim that Darwin’s theory of evolution is wrong can safely be ignored. They’re not motivated by a dispassionate longing for truth but by blind faith or vague gut feeling. But how about economists who proclaim that free trade isn’t beneficial? In this essay, Paul Krugman argues that they’re not…
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Simpler Than We Thought
Human existence may be simpler than we thought. There is no predestination, no unfathomed mystery of life. Demons and gods do not vie for our allegiance. Instead, we are self-made, independent, alone, and fragile, a biological species adapted to live in a biological world. What counts for long-term survival is…
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Dignity
If you’ve read or seen Hillbilly Elegy by J. D. Vance and want to get a broader perspective of poverty in a rich country, or if you’d prefer to bypass Vance entirely, consider Dignity by Chris Arnade. It’s a portrait of what Arnade calls back row America: The homeless, the addicts, the prostitutes and their quest…
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Coherence Tradeoffs
There is an optimal intermediate degree of fragmentation, that a too-unified society is a disadvantage, and a too-fragmented society is also a disadvantage Jared Diamond Previously, I have written about the idea that singletons are hard to achieve. Singletons are agents that can enact their goals and maintain a high…
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Adaptationism
The next time you’re in a room full of biologists and you want to start a shouting match, ask them about junk DNA. While everyone agrees on the importance of protein coding genes and the regulatory sequences that control their expression, there is little consensus if the majority of the…
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Not To Spend It, But To Have It
Paul Auster, who died earlier this year, on his father, but actually on money: It was not so much the money itself he wanted, but what it represented: not merely success in the eyes of the world, but a way of making himself untouchable. Having money means more than being able…
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Two Good Lakes
I like people but I don’t like crowds. I don’t actually mind crowds either if they don’t cause congestion. Some crowding in a subway station is fine as long as it doesn’t result in me not getting on a train. I don’t mind busy city streets as long as I…
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One Utopia
Ken Ilgunas’ utopia for North America: A stable population of 100 million humans (a mostly arbitrary number), mostly clustered in metropolitan areas, eating the best, juiciest lab-grown sirloins, enjoying lives of meaning and leisure, with lots of solar panels and pagan orgies. Now that the land is free of domesticated…
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Time Use
How we spend our days is, of course, how we spend our lives. Annie Dillard The equivalent of more than 20 million people’s lives are wasted watching Netflix. We spend two hours per day watching TV according to a recently updated time use survey. This hides a lot of person-to-person…
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The Fire That Never Goes Out
An essay by Richard Fisher on the Zoroastrian flame that has been kept alive for more than 1,500 years. More on the Long Now foundation here.
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Make Bright the Arrows
Make bright the arrows Gather the shields: Conquest narrows The peaceful fields. Stock well the quiver With arrows bright: The bowman feared Need never fight. Make bright the arrows, O peaceful and wise! Gather the shields Against surprise. Edna St. Vincent Millay: Make bright the arrows
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Fire and Ice
Some say the world will end in fire; Some say in ice. From what I’ve tasted of desire I hold with those who favor fire. But if it had to perish twice, I think I know enough of hate To know that for destruction ice Is also great And would…
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Crosses in Classrooms
When I was going to public school in Austria in the 1990s, there was a cross in every classroom. Where I went to elementary school in rural Lower Austria, everyone and their parents were from the same region. It was assumed you were Roman Catholic. The local priest came in…
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Time Well Wasted
There are probably better ways to waste your life, but Twitter’s at least pretty efficient Eric Jarosinski Based on the many years of experience I have not getting things done, I consider myself an authority on wasting time. That’s why I’ll not defer to others on the subject. There’s a…
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Paradise Now
Is the way we organize our society – capitalism, the nation state, individualism – the only way to set up a modern society, or could there be others? Paradise Now by Chris Jennings describes some high-profile examples of 19th century experimentation with alternative ways of living together, including the Shakers,…
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Political Assassinations
The last time anyone came close to killing a U.S. president was in 1981, when Ronald Reagan was shot and severely wounded by a mentally ill man. He recovered following surgery and a twelve-day hospital stay. Before then, there were five attempts to kill a president, four of which were…
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Pale Blue Dot: A Very Small Stage
From this distant vantage point, the Earth might not seem of any particular interest. But for us, it’s different. Look again at that dot. That’s here. That’s home. That’s us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived…
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