The last time anyone came close to killing a U.S. president was in 1981, when Ronald Reagan was shot and severely wounded by a mentally ill man. He recovered following surgery and a twelve-day hospital stay. Before then, there were five attempts to kill a president, four of which were successful. There have been none since then that resulted in injury or death.
| President | Year | Event | U.S. Population (million) |
| Abraham Lincoln | 1865 | Assassinated | 35 |
| James A. Garfield | 1881 | Assassinated | 50 |
| William McKinley | 1901 | Assassinated | 76 |
| Theodore Roosevelt | 1912 | Wounded | 95 |
| John F. Kennedy | 1963 | Assassinated | 189 |
| Ronald Reagan | 1981 | Wounded | 226 |
As of 2024, the U.S. population stands at 337 million, almost 10 times more than when Lincoln was killed in 1865. Clearly, the probability of presidential assassination doesn’t change scale with population. Assuming that the proportion of those capable and willing to commit such a crime has stayed constant in the intervening 159 years, something else must have changed.
Better presidential protection likely explains a lot. The Secret Service is doing its job, and presidents being less likely to mingle with the rest of us helps too.
Culture and politics having become less violent since Lincoln’s assassination (but possibly not since Kennedy’s) may also contribute. What speaks against this being decisive is that most attempts, including the unsuccessful ones, are carried out by mentally ill individuals, are not for political reasons and are poorly planned, sometimes almost comically so.
There may also just not be that much of an incentive. Contrast the four assassinated U.S. presidents with the 37 Roman emperors (out of 69) who were assassinated, not counting Nero, who committed suicide. Killing the emperor was one of the ways to get the job yourself. This wouldn’t happen nowadays, say what you will about the quality of political discourse.
Nehaveigur 